Bubble teams hoping the number of available at-large bids doesn't shrink need to keep an eye out West.
That's because a trio of potential bid thieves have advanced to the semifinals in the Pac-10 and Mountain West tournaments.
USC would have a case for an at-large bid if it defeats top-seeded Arizona on Friday night, but fellow Pac-10 semifinalist Oregon has zero chance at an at-large and Mountain West semifinalist New Mexico has only faint hopes. The Ducks face a shorthanded, enigmatic Washington team they split with in the regular season, while the Lobos meet a BYU team they've defeated four straight times.
Below is my take on the bubble picture as it stands entering Friday's action. Remember that the margin between some of these teams is so thin that it's very subjective differentiating between them and that it could change considerably as a result of conference tournament results the next three days.
Who's in and Who's out?
61. Colorado (21-12, 8-8, RPI: 68): Having narrowly averted a season-crushing loss to Iowa State in the first round of the Big 12 tournament on Wednesday, the Buffs then all but punched their NCAA ticket by upsetting previously surging Kansas State. A third win over Kansas State this season coupled with victories over Missouri and Texas should send Colorado to the NCAA tournament despite mediocre computer numbers dragged down by far too many victories over teams with RPI's 300 and above.
62. Richmond (24-7, 13-3, RPI: 58): Even though the Spiders failed to beat Atlantic 10 front runners Temple and Xavier this season, simply avoiding bad losses down the stretch enabled them to finish three games clear of fourth-place Duquesne. An Atlantic 10 quarterfinal win over Rhode Island might be enough to secure a bid for Richmond, while a semifinal win over likely opponent Temple would make the Spiders locks.
63. Boston College (20-11, 9-7, RPI: 44): Boston College set up an all-important ACC quarterfinal clash between with fellow at-large hopeful Clemson by defeating Wake Forest on Thursday. The Eagles probably cannot afford to lose that game because a non-conference victory over Texas A&M and a sweep of Virginia Tech are the only standout wins on their resume.
64. Michigan State (18-13, 9-9, RPI: 47): If Michigan State is going to make the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, the Spartans will have to do it with 14 losses on their resume. A narrow 66-61 victory over Iowa in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament strengthens Michigan State's position, but it will take a quarterfinal upset of Purdue before the Spartans can feel 100 percent confident their name will be called on Selection Sunday.
65. Michigan (19-12, 9-9, RPI: 57): Amid all the griping about bubble teams being unable to play their way into the field, Michigan emerged as an exception, rallying from a 1-6 start to Big Ten play to raise its conference record to 9-9. A season sweep of rival Michigan State gives the Wolverines hope, but Michigan must win its Big Ten quarterfinal against Illinois to solidify its chances.
66. Saint Mary's (22-7, 11-3, RPI: 48): What may cost the Gaels a bid is a late-season slide that included a pair of losses to Gonzaga, a home loss to Utah State and an inexplicable loss to woeful San Diego. Does an early home win over St. John's and going 1-for-3 against the Zags counteract that poor finish? Let's just say it's going to be a nerve-wracking week for the Gaels.
67. Clemson (20-10, 9-7, RPI: 59): Aside from a victory over Southern Conference tournament champion Wofford in November, the only certain NCAA tournament team the Tigers have beaten is Florida State at home. That's why it's essential Clemson gets a second win over Boston College (or Wake Forest) in Friday's ACC quarterfinal to set up a potential semifinal matchup with North Carolina, which could provide the Tigers the marquee victory they need to go from bubble hopeful to at-large lock.
68. Alabama (20-10, 12-4, RPI: 83): Alabama remains the most fascinating bubble team in the field because of the conundrum of whether its strong SEC season counteracts its woeful non-league performance. No matter which side of that argument you fall on, an SEC quarterfinal victory over Georgia is a must and a run to the conference title game would all but lock up a bid.
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69. USC (19-13, 10-8, RPI: 70): The Trojans kept their at-large hopes alive on Thursday by pummeling Cal in the Pac-10 quarterfinals, setting up a semifinal against top-seeded Arizona that USC likely needs to win. While marquee wins over Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA and Washington bolster USC's case, no bubble team has a worse collection of losses than Rider, Bradley and TCU, not to mention a sweep at the hands of Oregon.
70. Virginia Tech (20-10, 9-7, RPI: 66): The perennially bubble-bound Hokies are in this tenuous position yet again because they followed up a win over Duke with galling losses to fellow bubble teams Boston College and Clemson. A win over Georgia Tech in the first round of the ACC tournament helps, but the Hokies may need to beat Florida State in the ACC tournament to feel good about their chances.
71. Alabama-Birmingham (22-8, 12-4, RPI: 28): UAB's overtime loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA quarterfinals on Thursday likely dooms the Blazers to the NIT. The Blazers won the the league title, boast a strong RPI and defeated VCU and Arkansas outside of league play, but the lack of a marquee wins on this resume probably isn't enough to overcome Thursday's stunning loss.
72. Memphis (23-9, 10-6, RPI: 38): Not only did Memphis stay alive with a victory over Southern Miss on Thursday, the Tigers caught a huge break by drawing East Carolina instead of UAB in the C-USA semifinals on Friday. Would getting to the C-USA title game coupled with a win over Gonzaga and a sweep of UAB be enough for Memphis to sneak in as an at-large? The Tigers would be wise not to rely on it.
73. VCU (22-11, 12-6, RPI: 50): The Rams' rally against Old Dominion in the CAA title game fell a few buckets short, which may end up condemning them to the NIT. Can solid wins over UCLA, George Mason and Old Dominion outweigh a poor finish to CAA play that included losses to Drexel and James Madison? Doubtful.
Wednesday's bubble recap:
? Colorado 87, Kansas State 75 ? Three wins for the Buffs over Kansas State puts them in excellent position to make the NCAA tournament
? USC 70, Cal 56 ? Whether the Trojans' profile is good enough or not to get in, they're certainly playing like an NCAA tournament team right now.
? Michigan State 66, Iowa 61 ? This wasn't exactly a confidence-inspiring victory, but it was a win that the Spartans had to have.
? Virginia Tech 59, Georgia Tech 43 ? Hokies had to have this one. Now they face another likely must-win against Florida State.
? Boston College 81, Wake Forest 67 ? By putting the Demon Deacons out of their misery, the Eagles set up an apparent play-in game against Clemson.
Thursday's bubble look-ahead:
? Georgia vs. Alabama ? Georgia's in with a win. Alabama cannot afford a loss here.
? USC vs. Arizona ?� The Trojans, winners of six of seven, already trounced Arizona in Los Angeles a few weeks ago. A second victory over the top-seeded Wildcats might send USC to the NCAA tournament.
? Boston College vs. Clemson ? The loser likely will be NIT-bound, especially if it's Clemson.
? Michigan State vs. Purdue ? An upset victory here puts the Spartans in the field for sure.
? Virginia Tech vs. Florida State ? This is a similar game to what Colorado faced on Thursday. Win and the Hokies will feel confident. Lose and it's likely a season killer.
? Illinois vs. Michigan ?� While the Illini are likely safely in� the field win or lose here, it feels like a win that the Wolverines need.
? Memphis vs. East Carolina ?� Tigers can't afford to lose this one.
? Colorado vs. Kansas ?� The Buffs played Kansas to a four-point game without Thomas Robinson earlier this season. Can they keep it close again?
? Rhode Island vs. Richmond ?� The Spiders have avoided bad losses in league play all season and they need to do it once more in the quarterfinals here.
Tricia Vessey Aki Ross Ashley Tappin Carmen Electra Amanda Marcum
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