An absurdly premature assessment of the 2011 Ducks.
? Previously On… Where the rest of the Pac-10 was concerned, watching film on Oregon last fall must have felt like watching the latest installment of the Saw series, where the bizarrely-outfitted villain cruelly toys with his victims before leaving them scattered across the premises in a gory mess. The Ducks blazed through the first perfect regular season in school history at the absurd clip of 47 points on 531 yards per game, both unmatched by any other offense nationally, and hung double-digit defeats on every regular season opponent except one. With sophomores Darron Thomas and LaMichael James filling the roles of predecessors Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, it was the ultimate fulfillment of the broken promise of Chip Kelly's first season as offensive coordinator, way back in 2007, in his second as head coach.
Frankly, on the heels of a Rose Bowl run in 2009, they looked that good on paper even before the season began: All five starters were back from the '09 offensive line, along with the leading rusher, the top three wide receivers and eight of the top nine tacklers on defense. In the end, all that was missing was the follow-through. Even in their BCS Championship loss to Auburn, where they were held to 19 points and visibly struggled with the Tigers' front seven on defense, the Ducks managed to rack up 449 yards in total offense —�much of which went for naught on six separate drives that fizzled in Auburn territory.
? The Big Change. The image of Oregon is of a lot of fast guys playing as fast as they can in sleek 23rd Century uniforms determined to make them look even faster. But the fact is that the Ducks' success started with their senior-led ownership of the line of scrimmage — more�obviously on offense, but quietly on defense, too, where they led the Pac-10 in tackles for loss and both rushing yards and touchdowns allowed in conference games. Certainly the mass exodus hits just as hard on both sides: Along with three senior offensive linemen (Jordan Holmes, C.E. Kaiser and Bo Thran) who combined for nearly 100 starts over the last three seasons, Oregon is also bidding sayonara to its leading tackler (Casey Matthews), its best pass rusher (Kenny Rowe), its best interior run-stuffer (Brandon Bair) and a three-year starter at linebacker (Spencer Paysinger) who finished as one of the team's top two or three tacklers all three years. That's kind of a lot.
| ?The Least You Should Know About... |
 Oregon |
| ?? In 2010 |
| 12-1 (9-0 Pac-10, 1st place); Lost BCS Championship Game. |
| ?? Past Five Years |
| 2006-10: 48-17 (33-12 Pac-10); Back-to-back Pac-10 championships. |
| ?? Five-Year Recruiting Rankings* |
| 2007-11:11 ?�19 ? 32 ? 13 ? 9. |
| ?? Best Player |
 Around this time last year, LaMichael James' season was beginning to look like a rumor, at least until the Pac-10's reigning Freshman of the Year figured out how to get back on campus in the wake of a domestic abuse arrest that had already earned him a suspension for the season opener in the fall. Once the ball actually found its way into his hands in September, though, it was all over: The sophomore blur zipped over 100 total yards in every regular season game, led the nation in rushing, yards from scrimmage and touchdowns and finished third in Heisman voting. With two full seasons of eligibility still in front of him, James is 19 yards of the school's career rushing record. |
| ?? Best Year Ever |
 What's your crier? By any measure, the 2010 Ducks cemented their place on the national scene with new school records for scoring and wins, ran the table in the Pac-10 for the first time since joining the conference in 1968, hit No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time ever and came within a few minutes of Oregon's first national championship. |
| ?? Best Case |
| Par for the course offensively; smooth transition on the offensive line; continued opportunism by a rebuilding defense. 12-1, Pac-12 champion, Rose Bowl. A return to the BCS Championship is within reach, but only with a loss: Running the table two years in a row with six new starters on defense is too tall. |
| ?? Worst Case |
| Running game takes a minor step back behind the rebuilding line; passing game takes a minor step back with less fearsome running game and no go-to receiver; defense takes a large step back in the process of replacing five starters along the front seven. 8-4, Holiday Bowl. |
| * Based on Rivals' national rankings (top 50 only) |
There's no threat of imminent collapse on offense with vets Mark Asper and Carson York en tow for their third year together as full-time starters, and the defense isn't completely starting over thanks to defensive end Terrell Turner and linebacker Josh Kaddu. Unlike the offense, though, the front seven on defense is clearly losing its most consistent playmakers —�neither Turner nor Kaddu even finished among the team's top ten tacklers, or among the top five in sacks or tackles for loss —�with no obvious candidates to replace them. The voids at middle and weakside linebacker leave an immediate opening for incoming freshman Colt Lyerla, a local five-star drawing explicit comparisons to Brian Urlacher, but both defensive tackle spots remain an utter mystery.
? Big Men On Campus. As for the fast guys on offense, well, yes, that part is still true. In fact, with second-year blazer Lache Seastrunk shedding his redshirt and diminutive true freshmen De'Anthony Thomas and Tacoi Sumler joining track teammates LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner in the fall, the backfield will look even more like a day-glo electron cloud. Darron Thomas can run a little bit, too.
Of course, there's still only one ball to go around, which means either a) Another relatively quiet year for Barner and the rest of the backfield with James hogging most of the carries as one of the most called-upon workhorses in the nation, or b) A frustrated Heisman campaign for James as coaches go out of their way to spread the wealth. James logged at least 25 carries in six different games last year that the Ducks won by at least 17 points, which doesn't seem like the most efficient use of a 180-pound superstar.
? Open Casting. The embarrassment of riches in the backfield is one reason to keep the ball on the ground. The other is the absence of any really compelling target in the passing game sans leading receivers Jeff Maehl and Drew Davis. Maehl was Thomas' favorite receiver by far —in the Pac-10,�only Arizona's Juron Criner was targeted more often, and he played in a much pass-happier offense.
The search for a new go-to guy begins with senior Lavasier Tuinei, but only because he's the default "returning starter" in the corps. Actually, he seems more likely to remain in his existing role as the sturdy (6-foot-5, 220 pounds) possession receiver, which hasn't given him much opportunity to emulate Maehl's threat downfield. Tight end David Paulson and freshman Josh Huff seemed more suited to that role last year, and none of the three incoming receivers pegged as four-star prospects by Rivals are going to find a very long line of succession between them and the field.
? Overly optimistic spring narrative. The offense is the offense. At this point, there are no further questions about Chip Kelly's system or whether he has the talent on hand to gun it into the national elite. His brand of the up-tempo zone-read/spread option attack has generated consistent success with three very different players at quarterback — the short, essentially un-recruited Jeremiah Masoli, initially a fifth-stringer, couldn't have fallen much further from the tree that produced Dixon and Thomas, yet all three have captained the highest-scoring attack the Pac-10 each of the last four years. The same system has also churned out four different 1,000-yard rushers in the same span, from backs as diverse as oversized, NFL-bound thumpers Jonathan Stewart and LeGarrette Blount to James, a diminutive speedster.
If you take into account Blount's immediate suspension in 2009, Thomas and James will be the first quarterback-tailback combo with a second season together in Kelly's scheme, which is frankly terrifying —�especially for Thomas, a relatively unsung revelation as a first-year starter. If he was good enough to fuel defensive coordinators' nightmares last year, he may be on the verge of becoming Freddy Krueger as an upperclassman. (This may also be the place to mention that All-American Cliff Harris' presence as a punt returner already has the same effect on special teams.)
? The Big Question: Can the revamped offensive line keep the offense moving at full throttle?.
The departure of 60 percent of an extremely well-oiled front isn't nearly enough to threaten that track record or keep the Ducks from competing for the first Pac-12 title. But with a vulnerable defense and heavy challenges from fellow contenders LSU and Stanford — both outside of the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium — among the usual land mines of the expanded conference gauntlet, the offense will likely have to be even better than it was during last year's BCS run to engineer a return. That's not impossible with the talent and experience that does return, but the margin of error leaves no room for growing pains.
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Other premature assessments (in alphabetical order): Arkansas. … Central Michigan. … Georgia Tech. … Iowa State. … Louisiana-Lafayette. … Marshall. … Nebraska. … Ole Miss. … Pittsburgh. … Nevada. … South Florida. … Syracuse. … Utah.
Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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