What you'll be reading about for the next seven months.Last summer, college football teetered on the brink of the most radical earthquake in the history of the sport: Within a matter of weeks, we were faced with the possible extinction of the Big East, the capitulation of Notre Dame's independence, the expansion of the Big Ten and Pac-10 into continent-straddling colossuses and the startling death of the Big 12, just 15 years after its formation. The combined forces of the Big Ten Network and the Pac-16 seemed destined to rip the landscape apart into unpredictable and wholly unrecognizable fiefdoms.
What we were left with instead was a series of smaller shifts – Nebraska from the Big 12 to the Big Ten, Colorado and Utah from the Big 12 and Mountain West, respectively, to the new Pac-12, Boise State from the WAC to the Mountain West, BYU from the Mountain West to independence – that shuffled the prevailing order at the fringes without fundamentally altering the balance of power or (with the exception of the beleaguered WAC, thanks in large part to its own misguided aggression) threatening anyone's existence.
In the short term, in fact, the change has meant little more so far than rearranging and reprinting a few schedules, making plans for a pair of new conference championship games and attempting to aesthetically alienate an entire fan base. On the field, realignment figures to be felt in even more subtle ways:
• The first Big Ten Championship Game is Ohio State's chance for redemption. That cuts two ways. Even if they stumble without suspended quarterback Terrelle Pryor and three other key offensive starters in the Big Ten opener against Michigan State, the Buckeyes will still be the runaway favorite to beat Wisconsin (the Badgers come to Columbus on Oct. 29) for the top spot in the "Leaders" Division, and then to punch their ticket to the Rose Bowl with the lineup at full strength in the conference title game.
That is, if they're not punching their ticket to New Orleans for the BCS Championship Game, with or without an early stumble: A 13th regular season game against a quality opponent (Michigan State and Nebraska are the early favorites in the "Legends" Division) would also dramatically enhance Ohio State's resumé as a one-loss contender at the top of the polls, especially if that one loss came prior to Pryor and Co.'s return in October. At any rate, OSU will definitely not have to endure any more of the vagaries of a three-way tie.
• The first Pac-12 Championship Game is kind of redundant. Oregon and Stanford finished this season as the only Pac-10 teams in the final polls, and based on the early returns, they're likely to be the only two teams there as the curtain rises on the new Pac-12. Just like last year, the regular season collision between the Ducks and Cardinal should decide the conference championship, and possibly which team goes on to play for the national championship. But as fellow members of the Pac-12 North, they won't be seeing one another in the inaugural conference championship game.
In fact, the most obvious threat from the South Division, USC, remains ineligible for the title game (pending appeal of NCAA sanctions barring the Trojans from the postseason), leaving newcomer Utah and ... wait for it ... Arizona State as the early frontrunners to serve as sacrificial lamb to the Oregon-Stanford winner in December.
• The Mountain West leaves Boise State's championship window open for one more year. Last year, it was the Broncos were dropped into the championship dice cup by an absurd bounty of veteran talent, thanks to 21 returning starters from the undefeated, Fiesta Bowl-winning campaign of 2009-10. Some of that talent remains – notably quarterback Kellen Moore and four starting offensive linemen – but any buzz about the Broncos' 2011 championship hopes will focus on their one and only date with their new elite conference mate, TCU, which will open in the top 10 again to close out its seven-year run in the MWC. With Georgia on tap to open the season in Atlanta, Boise has another heavy hitter to add to its ever-expanding graveyard of high-profile victims, and – unlike in the WAC – a high-profile conference rival down the stretch to thwart the charge of a "one-game season."
But that window won't be open long: Moore is a senior and TCU is off to the Big East in 2012, at which point the MWC basically becomes the WAC 2.0, and Boise is right back where it started in the national landscape. It may be decades before the Broncos get a shot at more impressive run to 12-0.
• The Big 12 is going to be just fine, thanks. For a few days last June, the Big 12 was dead meat, and only exists now because of an 11th-hour financial pledge that may or not pay off in the long run. Competitively, though, the top half of the slimmed-down, 10-team edition of the Big 12 figures to give the conference three teams in the top 10 going into the year, including the overwhelming preseason favorite nationally, and not including Texas, which could come roaring back from last year's 5-7 debacle.
With the addition of a ninth conference game in the regular season negating the perfunctory conference championship game at the end, the realignment also ends a solid decade of South Division dominance over the North. Even if Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas A&M dominate the Big 12 for the foreseeable future – and it looks they will, for 2011, at least – they can claim their success for the entire conference, and not just the Southern half of it. And considering how often national championship ambitions have met their grisly end in the Big 12 Championship Game, they may not miss it very much.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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