The world's richest league may not take place next season unless a deal is struck between players and club owners
DeMaurice Smith's words ought to have shocked people. Three days before a Super Bowl between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers that is widely predicted to break attendance and television viewing figures, here was the executive director of the NFL Players Association openly discussing the possibility that the world's richest sports league may be heading for a work stoppage that would mean there is no season in 2011.
"Every player has heard me say to prepare for the worst," said Smith at the union's annual pre-Super Bowl press conference on Thursday. "I believe the [NFL team] owners have been taking steps towards a lock-out for a long time."
None of the people in attendance were the least bit stunned. Smith has been making this warning for a very long time. Before last year's Super Bowl he rated the possibility of a lock-out as a "14" out of 10. In November he told Bloomberg Television that it was a "near certainty".
Two years have passed since the NFL's team owners voted unanimously to opt out of their collective bargaining agreement with the players, a contract that sets out everything from salary caps to the rules of the college draft. The existing deal will expire on 3 March. Without a replacement there can be no season in 2011.
At this stage, negotiations have not so much ground to a halt as not even begun. Where the previous agreement provided for almost 58% of league revenues to be spent on player salaries, the owners want to cut that figure to 40%, claiming the existing model does not take into account their need to reinvest in stadiums and infrastructure. The union say they will not contemplate such a reduction until the owners open up their books, with Smith asserting yesterday on that "over the last 15 years every team's value has grown by about 500%." The owners have flatly refused.
There are other issues at stake, too. The owners have proposed extending the regular season from 16 to 18 games, theoretically bringing in more revenue for all, but the players have pointed out that more games means a higher risk of injury. "A player has to play for three years to get five years of post-career healthcare," the NFLPA spokesman, George Atallah, told the Guardian. "So if you add two games, don't you increase the barrier to getting that post-career healthcare?"
Smith contends that the owners have been positioning themselves for a stoppage, securing television contracts worth $4bn with broadcasters obliged to pay up even if no games take place. He has also highlighted the league's decision to hire the lawyer Bob Batterman, who represented the National Hockey League's owners in their recent lock-out, in which the 2004-05 season was cancelled.
His union, by contrast, has taken a hearts and minds approach to winning over the fans, running an emotive advertising campaign titled Let Us Play. Much was made of the refusal by CBS, one of the league's broadcast partners, to air one such commercial the day before this Super Bowl, though the network insisted it was not taking sides but simply did not want to get involved.
Many fans do not feel much sympathy for either side in what is perceived as a stand-off between millionaires and billionaires, even if the reality for the league's lower-paid players ?NFL careers last an average of three-and-a-half years and the physical nature of the sport greatly enhances the risk of medical problems in later life ? is a lot less glamorous than many would imagine. Most care only that a deal gets done, and various NFL executives have backed the owners' claim that the previous deal was "unbalanced".
Smith is set to open a new series of meetings with the league's commissioner, Roger Goodell, and insisted that the pair have a "good relationship". It will be tested in the weeks to come.
Gina Carano Sanaa Lathan Ana Beatriz Barros Maria Menounos Shakira
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