Sunday, December 26, 2010

NFL Talkboard: Week 12 | Paolo Bandini

Have your say on all the week's big stories in the NFL, plus take part in our Pick Six predictions game

Welcome back to the NFL Talkboard. Most of you will know the drill by now, but for those who don't, this is a dedicated space where people can talk about American football. Every week I will post the games for our Pick Six predictions competition and if there's time one or two talking points as well. The blog will then stay open over the weekend, allowing everyone ? myself included ? to keep chatting about the games as they happen and afterwards on Sunday and Monday.

Giving thanks for Thanksgiving games

For once, Turkey Day served up some really entertaining games. The Lions haven't won their Thanksgiving game since 2003, but when Maurice Morris plunged into the endzone from a yard out midway through the third quarter you wouldn't have bet against them. His touchdown gave them a 24-17 lead in a game in which they had only once been behind, for the briefest of spells early on, but before the end of the third quarter the Patriots had levelled on a 79-yard pass from Tom Brady to Deion Branch and from there they dominated the fourth quarter - eventually winning 45-24.

The Lions' players didn't seem of a mindset to take any positives from defeat, but perhaps that in itself is encouraging. This team is genuinely angry that they haven't been able to convert strong performances into more wins this year. They have had enough of being downtrodden. And next season, if they can keep Matthew Stafford healthy, I suspect they are going to convert that anger into a very sharp turnaround and a run at the play-offs. This year, though, has already slipped away.

Dallas News's Tim Cowlishaw believes the Cowboys are on the right track, too, after they recovered from a horrendous start to push the New Orleans Saints close. The Bengals, on the other hand ... well, the less said the better.

This weekend's games

OK, Pick Six time. A nice, loud "Hell yes!" for michaelinmelbourne - the only one to get all six right last week. It remains tight at the top of the overall standings with CruyffTurn, RobbyBobson, stephentheaardvark, theHUMBSTER all taking a share of first place. Full table, as ever, below the line. Here are this week's games:

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Are these the two best teams in the NFC? Very possibly, though I'm sure the two in our next game would beg to differ. Both quarterbacks are on fire right now. The Packers have the better pass defence, but I'm going to fall back on a statistic I heard earlier this season: Matt Ryan has only lost once in his career in the Georgia Dome.

Falcons to win

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

The Giants' No1-ranked defence (at the time) couldn't get the job done against the Eagles last week, but they may have offered other teams an important template: force Michael Vick to roll right out of the pocket, and he becomes far less likely to throw the ball. The Bears' defence is on a high after shutting out the Dolphins, and Jay Cutler has made better decisions these last few weeks (his figures against the Fins may not look that impressive, but he managed the game perfectly and converted some big third downs). I just know I'm going to get burned for picking against Vick two weeks in a row, but with the extra rest from having played early last week, I think the Bears may just be able to get it done.

Bears to win

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins

A wafer-thin one-point line ? this week's narrowest ? in favour of Washington for the Las Vegas bookies. Presumably the thinking is that even being freed from Brad Childress won't be enough to stop Brett Favre throwing the ball to opponents. But here's the thing ? Washington are awful at defending against the rush. If Leslie Frazier has any sense he'll keep the ball in Adrian Peterson's hands as much as possible. I'm still not sure that'll be enough though.

Redskins to win

St Louis Rams @ Denver Broncos

The Rams are 0-4 on the road this season, but even at 4-6 overall remain very much alive in the NFC West (sooner or later, someone is going to win this division with a losing record). Denver get Robert Ayers back at outside linebacker and quarterback Kyle Orton will have opportunities against a so-so St Louis secondary. But I'm going with the team that at least feels like it's moving in the right direction.

Rams to win

San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts

The Chargers, predictably enough, are doing their November thing ? battling back into play-off contention after a miserable start. They get a potentially huge boost at wide receiver with Vincent Jackson ending his hold-out, while the Colts's injury list is so lengthy they may wind up having to send in the towel boy. Nevertheless they are unbeaten this season at home. Whichever way it goes, I suspect this will be settled by less than a touchdown.

Colts to win

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Not a high-point for Monday Night Football, but possibly the hardest game to call of the whole weekend ? good luck coming up with a reason to back either of these two teams. Arizona's quarterback-play has been horrific in the post-Kurt Warner era, while San Francisco were not just beaten but beaten down on their own turf by an improving but still flawed Tampa Bay Buccaneers team last week. Anybody got a coin to flip?

49ers to win


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